Palabras clave
dinámica de comunidades
gremios de alimentación
Guatemala
probabilidad de captura
regresión de Poisson
aves tropicales
Cómo citar
Resumen
El cambio climático es considerado uno de los principales factores que amenazan a la biodiversidad. El clima es de gran importancia para la dinámica poblacional de las aves, pero las consecuencias del cambio climático no han sido abordadas sino hasta recientemente, especialmente en aves tropicales. Para el norte de América Central, los escenarios de cambio climático para 2050 predicen una reducción en las precipitaciones, con disminuciones de 4–19% de las precipitaciones actuales. En este trabajo se evalúa la relación entre los cambios temporales en la cantidad de precipitaciones y la dinámica de la comunidad de aves en el este tropical de Guatemala para un período de 18 años (1993–2010). Los datos consistieron en capturas y recapturas anuales en cuatro sitios ubicados a altitudes entre 100–750 msnm, con análisis para las capturas totales y para seis gremios de alimentación. Los análisis estadísticos consistieron en regresiones de Poisson en las cuales la abundancia estimada (tomando en cuenta la probabilidad de recaptura) fue modelada en función de las precipitaciones (de la época lluviosa, de la época seca y la anual) y la tendencia temporal. Se detectaron fuertes declinaciones en la abundancia total y en la abundancia de las aves nectarívoras, omnívoras, frugívoras y, en menor grado, insectívoras de follaje. Estas declinaciones estuvieron fuertemente asociadas a la disminución en la cantidad de precipitaciones, principalmente de la época lluviosa. Se necesita un conocimiento más profundo de los efectos del cambio climático sobre la abundancia de animales en los ecosistemas tropicales, con el fin de proponer acciones de conservación y manejo en estos sistemas altamente diversos.
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